Global, regional, and national burden of respiratory tract cancers and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Prevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)-a one-third reduction in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 2030. We aimed to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of respiratory tract cancers (ie, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer). Deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on the 2010-19 period. FINDINGS: Globally, there were 2·26 million (95% uncertainty interval 2·07 to 2·45) new cases of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, and 2·04 million (1·88 to 2·19) deaths and 45·9 million (42·3 to 49·3) DALYs due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in 2019. There were 209 000 (194 000 to 225 000) new cases of larynx cancer, and 123 000 (115 000 to 133 000) deaths and 3·26 million (3·03 to 3·51) DALYs due to larynx cancer globally in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the number of new tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer cases increased by 23·3% (12·9 to 33·6) globally and the number of larynx cancer cases increased by 24·7% (16·0 to 34·1) globally. Global age-standardised incidence rates of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer decreased by 7·4% (-16·8 to 1·6) and age-standardised incidence rates of larynx cancer decreased by 3·0% (-10·5 to 5·0) in males over the past decade; however, during the same period, age-standardised incidence rates in females increased by 0·9% (-8·2 to 10·2) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and decreased by 0·5% (-8·4 to 8·1) for larynx cancer. Furthermore, although age-standardised incidence and death rates declined in both sexes combined from 2010 to 2019 at the global level for tracheal, bronchus, lung and larynx cancers, some locations had rising rates, particularly those on the lower end of the SDI range. Smoking contributed to an estimated 64·2% (61·9-66·4) of all deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and 63·4% (56·3-69·3) of all deaths from larynx cancer in 2019. For males and for both sexes combined, smoking was the leading specific risk factor for age-standardised deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer per 100 000 in all SDI quintiles and GBD regions in 2019. However, among females, household air pollution from solid fuels was the leading specific risk factor in the low SDI quintile and in three GBD regions (central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa) in 2019. INTERPRETATION: The numbers of incident cases and deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer increased globally during the past decade. Even more concerning, age-standardised incidence and death rates due to tracheal, bronchus, lung cancer and larynx cancer increased in some populations-namely, in the lower SDI quintiles and among females. Preventive measures such as smoking control interventions, air quality management programmes focused on major air pollution sources, and widespread access to clean energy should be prioritised in these settings. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Quantifying non-communicable diseases' burden in Egypt using State-Space model.

The study aimed to model and quantify the health burden induced by four non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Egypt, the first to be conducted in the context of a less developing county. The study used the State-Space model and adopted two Bayesian methods: Particle Filter and Particle Independent Metropolis-Hastings to model and estimate the NCDs' health burden trajectories. We drew on time-series data of the International Health Metric Evaluation, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) Annual Bulletin of Health Services Statistics, the World Bank, and WHO data. Both Bayesian methods showed that the burden trajectories are on the rise. Most of the findings agreed with our assumptions and are in line with the literature. Previous year burden strongly predicts the burden of the current year. High prevalence of the risk factors, disease prevalence, and the disease's severity level all increase illness burden. Years of life lost due to death has high loadings in most of the diseases. Contrary to the study assumption, results found a negative relationship between disease burden and health services utilization which can be attributed to the lack of full health insurance coverage and the pattern of health care seeking behavior in Egypt. Our study highlights that Particle Independent Metropolis-Hastings is sufficient in estimating the parameters of the study model, in the case of time-constant parameters. The study recommends using state Space models with Bayesian estimation approaches with time-series data in public health and epidemiology research.

Worldwide Trends in Prevalence, Mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for Hypertensive Heart Disease From 1990 to 2017.

[Figure: see text].

Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the level and trends of point prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for other musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders, i.e. those not covered by specific estimates generated for RA, OA, low back pain, neck pain and gout, from 1990 to 2017 by age, sex and sociodemographic index. METHODS: Publicly available modelled estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study were extracted and reported as counts and age-standardized rates per 100 000 population for 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017. RESULTS: Globally, the age-standardized point prevalence estimates and deaths rates of other MSK disorders in 2017 were 4151.1 and 1.0 per 100 000. This was an increase of 3.4% and 7.2%, respectively. The age-standardized DALY rate in 2017 was 380.2, an increase of 3.4%. The point prevalence estimate was higher among females and increased with age. This peaked in the 65-69 year age group for both females and males in 2017, followed by a decreasing trend for both sexes. At the national level, the highest age-standardized point prevalence estimates in 2017 were seen in Bangladesh, India and Nepal. The largest increases in age-standardized point prevalence estimates were observed in Romania, Croatia and Armenia. CONCLUSION: The burden of other MSK disorders is proven to be substantial and increasing worldwide, with a notable intercountry variation. Data pertaining to specific diseases within this overarching category are required for future GBD MSK estimates. This would enable policymakers to better allocate resources and provide interventions appropriately.

Burden of vision loss due to diabetic retinopathy in China from 1990 to 2017: findings from the global burden of disease study.

PURPOSE: To conduct a detailed analysis on the burden of vision loss due to diabetic retinopathy (DR) by year, age and gender in China from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: This is a between-country, retrospective, comparative burden-of-disease study. Prevalence and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) data caused by DR in China and relative territories were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2017 to observe the changing trends of vision loss. RESULTS: Prevalence and YLDs of DR in China increased significantly from 1990 to 2017. The age-standardized prevalence and YLDs rate witnessed a slowly declining trend recently. Higher prevalence and YLDs were observed in female subjects in the past three decades. Middle-aged and elderly people suffered from a higher burden of DR-induced vision loss. The total age-standardized prevalence rate of China in 1990 (17.68) and 2017 (21.88) was lower than that of other seven neighbouring countries. In 2017, moderate vision loss (MVL) (17.19) accounted for the largest proportion in China. The all-age YLDs of DR showed the second-highest increase (150.26%) while the age-standardized YLDs rate showed the third-highest increase (14.91%) among fifteen common causes of vision impairment (VI) from 1990 to 2017. China ranked 3rd among G20 countries in terms of all-age YLDs while ranked 18th in age-standardized YLDs rate in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: In the past three decades, the prevalence and YLDs due to DR in China have improved in both genders. This study highlights the importance of prevention for DR, especially for women and the elderly.

Burden of non-communicable diseases from infectious causes in 2017: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause a large burden of disease globally. Some infectious diseases cause an increased risk of developing specific NCDs. Although the NCD burden from some infectious causes has been quantified, in this study, we aimed to more comprehensively quantify the global burden of NCDs from infectious causes. METHODS: In this modelling study, we identified NCDs with established infectious risk factors and infectious diseases with long-term non-communicable sequelae, and did narrative reviews between April 11, 2018, and June 10, 2020, to obtain relative risks (RRs) or population attributable fractions (PAFs) from studies quantifying the contribution of infectious causes to NCDs. To determine infection-attributable burden for the year 2017, we applied estimates of PAFs to estimates of disease burden from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 for pairs of infectious causes and NCDs, or used estimates of attributable burden directly from GBD 2017. Morbidity and mortality burden from these conditions was summarised with age-standardised rates of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), for geographical regions as defined by the GBD. Estimates of NCD burden attributable to infectious causes were compared with attributable burden for the groups of risk factors with the highest PAFs from GBD 2017. FINDINGS: Globally, we quantified 130 million DALYs from NCDs attributable to infection, comprising 8·4% of all NCD DALYs. The infection-NCD pairs with the largest burden were gastric cancer due to H pylori (14·6 million DALYs), cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to hepatitis B virus (12·2 million) and hepatitis C virus (10·4 million), liver cancer due to hepatitis B virus (9·4 million), rheumatic heart disease due to streptococcal infection (9·4 million), and cervical cancer due to HPV (8·0 million). Age-standardised rates of infection-attributable NCD burden were highest in Oceania (3564 DALYs per 100 000 of the population) and central sub-Saharan Africa (2988 DALYs per 100 000) followed by the other sub-Saharan African regions, and lowest in Australia and New Zealand (803 DALYs per 100 000) followed by other high-income regions. In sub-Saharan Africa, the proportion of crude NCD burden attributable to infectious causes was 11·7%, which was higher than the proportion of burden attributable to each of several common risk factors of NCDs (tobacco, alcohol use, high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high fasting plasma glucose, air pollution, and high LDL cholesterol). In other broad regions, infectious causes ranked between fifth and eighth in terms of crude attributable proportions among the nine risks compared. The age-standardised attributable proportion for infectious risks remained highest in sub-Saharan Africa of the broad regions, but age-standardisation caused infectious risks to fall below dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, and fasting plasma glucose in ranked attributable proportions within the region. INTERPRETATION: Infectious conditions cause substantial NCD burden with clear regional variation, and estimates of this burden are likely to increase as evidence that can be used for quantification expands. To comprehensively avert NCD burden, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, the availability, coverage, and quality of cost-effective interventions for key infectious conditions need to be strengthened. Efforts to promote universal health coverage must address infectious risks leading to NCDs, particularly in populations with high rates of these infectious conditions, to reduce existing regional disparities in rates of NCD burden. FUNDING: Leona M and Harry B Helmsley Charitable Trust.

A surveillance method to identify patients with sepsis from electronic health records in Hong Kong: a single centre retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Currently there are only two population studies on sepsis incidence in Asia. The burden of sepsis in Hong Kong is unknown. We developed a sepsis surveillance method to estimate sepsis incidence from a population electronic health record (EHR) in Hong Kong using objective clinical data. The study objective was to assess our method's performance in identifying sepsis using a retrospective cohort. We compared its accuracy to administrative sepsis surveillance methods such as Angus' and Martin's methods. METHOD: In this single centre retrospective study we applied our sepsis surveillance method on adult patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in Hong Kong. Two clinicians independently reviewed the clinical notes to determine which patients had sepsis. Performance was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the curve (AUC) of Angus', Martin's and our surveillance methods using clinical review as "gold standard." RESULTS: Between January 1 and February 28, 2018, our sepsis surveillance method identified 1352 adult patients hospitalised with suspected infection. We found that 38.9% (95%CI 36.3-41.5) of these patients had sepsis. Using a 490 patient validation cohort, two clinicians had good agreement with weighted kappa of 0.75 (95% CI 0.69-0.81) before coming to consensus on diagnosis of uncomplicated infection or sepsis for all patients. Our method had sensitivity 0.93 (95%CI 0.89-0.96), specificity 0.86 (95%CI 0.82-0.90) and an AUC 0.90 (95%CI 0.87-0.92) when validated against clinician review. In contrast, Angus' and Martin's methods had AUCs 0.56 (95%CI 0.53-0.58) and 0.56 (95%CI 0.52-0.59), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A sepsis surveillance method based on objective data from a population EHR in Hong Kong was more accurate than administrative methods. It may be used to estimate sepsis population incidence and outcomes in Hong Kong. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was retrospectively registered at clinicaltrials.gov on October 3, 2019 ( NCT04114214 ).

Global burden of disease due to smokeless tobacco consumption in adults: an updated analysis of data from 127 countries.

BACKGROUND: Smokeless tobacco (ST) is consumed by more than 300 million people worldwide. The distribution, determinants and health risks of ST differ from that of smoking; hence, there is a need to highlight its distinct health impact. We present the latest estimates of the global burden of disease due to ST use. METHODS: The ST-related disease burden was estimated for all countries reporting its use among adults. Using systematic searches, we first identified country-specific prevalence of ST use in men and women. We then revised our previously published disease risk estimates for oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers and cardiovascular diseases by updating our systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies. The updated country-specific prevalence of ST and disease risk estimates, including data up to 2019, allowed us to revise the population attributable fraction (PAF) for ST for each country. Finally, we estimated the disease burden attributable to ST for each country as a proportion of the DALYs lost and deaths reported in the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. RESULTS: ST use in adults was reported in 127 countries; the highest rates of consumption were in South and Southeast Asia. The risk estimates for cancers were also highest in this region. In 2017, at least 2.5 million DALYs and 90,791 lives were lost across the globe due to oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers that can be attributed to ST. Based on risk estimates obtained from the INTERHEART study, over 6 million DALYs and 258,006 lives were lost from ischaemic heart disease that can be attributed to ST. Three-quarters of the ST-related disease burden was among men. Geographically, > 85% of the ST-related burden was in South and Southeast Asia, India accounting for 70%, Pakistan for 7% and Bangladesh for 5% DALYs lost. CONCLUSIONS: ST is used across the globe and poses a major public health threat predominantly in South and Southeast Asia. While our disease risk estimates are based on a limited evidence of modest quality, the likely ST-related disease burden is substantial. In high-burden countries, ST use needs to be regulated through comprehensive implementation of the World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control.

Burden of melanoma in China, 1990-2017: Findings from the 2017 global burden of disease study.

Melanoma is an aggressive form of skin cancer, and a worldwide problem with increasing incidence. Little is known about the burden of melanoma in the Chinese population. We evaluated temporal trends and geographic variation in melanoma-associated burden, to narrow an important knowledge gap concerning the consequences of this disorder across time, provinces in China. After the general analytic strategy used in the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of melanoma, by age, sex and geography from 1990 to 2017. Levels in melanoma burden were assessed for 33 province-level administrative units between 1990 and 2017. We used joinpoint regression analysis to estimate the slope of incidence and mortality trends. The age-standardized incidence rate of melanoma was 0.9 per 100,000 in 2017, with a 110.3% rise compared to 1990. Although the age-standardized DALYs rate (per 100,000) decreased from 9.1 in 1990 to 7.6 in 2017, it showed an upward trend from 2007 to 2017. The DALYs rate increased steadily with age for females while increased and peaked at 55-59 years for males. The incidence of melanoma was higher in the clustered eastern provinces than western provinces, while the DALYs showed a pattern in opposite direction. In China, there has been a substantial increase in the burden of melanoma over the last decade, representing an ongoing challenge in Chinese population. More targeted strategies should be developed for elderly population, especially for females, to reduce the melanoma burden throughout China, particularly the western provinces.

The global, regional, and national burden of stomach cancer in 195 countries, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Stomach cancer is a major health problem in many countries. Understanding the current burden of stomach cancer and the differential trends across various locations is essential for formulating effective preventive strategies. We report on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to stomach cancer in 195 countries and territories from 21 regions between 1990 and 2017. METHODS: Estimates from GBD 2017 were used to analyse the incidence, mortality, and DALYs due to stomach cancer at the global, regional, and national levels. The rates were standardised to the GBD world population and reported per 100 000 population as age-standardised incidence rates, age-standardised death rates, and age-standardised DALY rates. All estimates were generated with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: In 2017, more than 1·22 million (95% UI 1·19-1·25) incident cases of stomach cancer occurred worldwide, and nearly 865 000 people (848 000-885 000) died of stomach cancer, contributing to 19·1 million (18·7-19·6) DALYs. The highest age-standardised incidence rates in 2017 were seen in the high-income Asia Pacific (29·5, 28·2-31·0 per 100 000 population) and east Asia (28·6, 27·3-30·0 per 100 000 population) regions, with nearly half of the global incident cases occurring in China. Compared with 1990, in 2017 more than 356 000 more incident cases of stomach cancer were estimated, leading to nearly 96 000 more deaths. Despite the increase in absolute numbers, the worldwide age-standardised rates of stomach cancer (incidence, deaths, and DALYs) have declined since 1990. The drop in the disease burden was associated with improved Socio-demographic Index. Globally, 38·2% (21·1-57·8) of the age-standardised DALYs were attributable to high-sodium diet in both sexes combined, and 24·5% (20·0-28·9) of the age-standardised DALYs were attributable to smoking in males. INTERPRETATION: Our findings provide insight into the changing burden of stomach cancer, which is useful in planning local strategies and monitoring their progress. To this end, specific local strategies should be tailored to each country's risk factor profile. Beyond the current decline in age-standardised incidence and death rates, a decrease in the absolute number of cases and deaths will be possible if the burden in east Asia, where currently almost half of the incident cases and deaths occur, is further reduced. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Socioeconomic status and stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and worldwide burden: an ecological analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with stroke incidence and mortality. Distribution of stroke risk factors is changing worldwide; evidence on these trends is crucial to the allocation of resources for prevention strategies to tackle major modifiable risk factors with the highest impact on stroke burden. METHODS: We extracted data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. We analysed trends in global and SES-specific age-standardised stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from 1990 to 2017. We also estimated the age-standardised attributable risk of stroke mortality associated with common risk factors in low-, low-middle-, upper-middle-, and high-income countries. Further, we explored the effect of age and sex on associations of risk factors with stroke mortality from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: Despite a growth in crude number of stroke events from 1990 to 2017, there has been an 11.3% decrease in age-standardised stroke incidence rate worldwide (150.5, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 140.3-161.8 per 100,000 in 2017). This has been accompanied by an overall 3.1% increase in age-standardised stroke prevalence rate (1300.6, UI 1229.0-1374.7 per 100,000 in 2017) and a 33.4% decrease in age-standardised stroke mortality rate (80.5, UI 78.9-82.6 per 100,000 in 2017) over the same time period. The rising trends in age-standardised stroke prevalence have been observed only in middle-income countries, despite declining trends in age-standardised stroke incidence and mortality in all income categories since 2005. Further, there has been almost a 34% reduction in stroke death rate (67.8, UI 64.1-71.1 per 100,000 in 2017) attributable to modifiable risk factors, more prominently in wealthier countries. CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of stroke-related deaths are attributable to poor management of modifiable risk factors, and thus potentially preventable. We should appreciate societal barriers in lower-SES groups to design tailored preventive strategies. Despite improvements in general health knowledge, access to healthcare, and preventative strategies, SES is still strongly associated with modifiable risk factors and stroke burden; thus, screening of people from low SES at higher stroke risk is crucial.

Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

OBJECTIVES: To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. DESIGN: Systematic analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). RESULTS: The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.

Global Collaborations for Cervical Cancer: Can the East-West Alliance Facilitate Treatment for all?

Despite the advances in the primary prevention of cervical cancer, there is an absolute increase in the incidence of cervical cancer as a result of an increase in world population. A vast majority of patients in low and low-middle income countries continue to present at a locally advanced stage, necessitating treatment with chemoradiation and brachytherapy. There is a dearth of equipment and trained professionals for the treatment of cervical cancer, especially in low and low-middle income countries. There is an urgent need to improve treatment availability and develop better treatments. Worldwide trends, however, reveal a low number of therapeutic and innovative research trials in cervical cancer. The present article elucidates the existing challenges and provides solutions to improve outcomes. The proposed strategies hinge on strengthening collaborations for global advocacy.

Comparison of Methods Used to Estimate the Global Burden of Disease Related to Undernutrition and Suboptimal Breastfeeding.

The Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) is an ambitious effort to estimate the disease burden attributable to various risk factors. The results from the GBD are used around the world to monitor the UN established Sustainable Development Goals, set health policies and research strategies, among others. The GBD along with other studies, such as those from the Maternal Child Epidemiology Estimation Group and the Lancet Breastfeeding Series Group, produce estimates of the nutrition-related global burden of disease that exhibit considerable differences. These differences are difficult to reconcile due to the estimation methods, which in recent years have substantially increased in complexity. In this paper, we give a detailed review of the methods used by GBD and other entities to estimate the global burden of disease that is attributable to undernutrition and suboptimal breastfeeding. Further, we compare the methods to determine causes for differences in estimates. We find that the main determinant of differences in estimates is what causes of death are linked to each risk factor. Methods used to estimate nutrition-related disease burden need to be more clearly documented to foster discussion and collaboration on the important assumptions required to produce estimates.

Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity. METHODS: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of disease-specific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome. FINDINGS: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates. INTERPRETATION: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, National, and Subnational Big Data to Inform Health Equity Research: Perspectives from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Objectives: Everyone deserves a long and healthy life, but in reality, health outcomes differ across populations. We use results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) to report patterns in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risks at the global, regional, national, and subnational level, and by sociodemographic index (SDI), from 1990 to 2017. Design: GBD 2017 undertook a systematic analysis of published studies and available data providing information on prevalence, incidence, remission, and excess mortality. We computed prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, years of life lost due to premature mortality, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years with 95% uncertainty intervals for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries from 1990 to 2017. We also computed SDI, a summary indicator combining measures of income, education, and fertility. Results: There were wide disparities in the burden of disease by SDI, with smaller burdens in affluent countries and in specific regions within countries. Select diseases and risks, such as drug use disorders, high blood pressure, high body mass index, diet, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and alcohol use disorders warrant increased global attention and indicate a need for greater investment in prevention and treatment across the life course. Conclusions: Policymakers need a comprehensive picture of what risks and causes result in disability and death. The GBD provides the means to quantify health loss: these findings can be used to examine root causes of disparities and develop programs to improve health and health equity.

Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in China, 1990-2016: Findings From the 2016 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Importance: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the top cause of death in China. To our knowledge, no consistent and comparable assessments of CVD burden have been produced at subnational levels, and little is understood about the spatial patterns and temporal trends of CVD in China. Objective: To determine the national and province-level burden of CVD from 1990 to 2016 in China. Design, Setting, and Participants: Following the methodology framework and analytical strategies used in the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study, the mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of CVD in the Chinese population were examined by age, sex, and year and according to 10 subcategories. Estimates were produced for all province-level administrative units of mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao. Exposures: Residence in China. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality, prevalence, and DALYs of CVD. Results: The annual number of deaths owing to CVD increased from 2.51 million to 3.97 million between 1990 and 2016; the age-standardized mortality rate fell by 28.7%, from 431.6 per 100 000 persons in 1990 to 307.9 per 100 000 in 2016. Prevalent cases of CVD doubled since 1990, reaching nearly 94 million in 2016. The age-standardized prevalence rate of CVD overall increased significantly from 1990 to 2016 by 14.7%, as did rates for ischemic heart disease (19.1%), ischemic stroke (36.6%), cardiomyopathy and myocarditis (23.1%), and endocarditis (26.7%). Substantial reduction in the CVD burden, as measured by age-standardized DALY rate, was observed from 1990 to 2016 nationally, with a greater reduction in women (43.7%) than men (24.7%). There were marked differences in the spatial patterns of mortality, prevalence, and DALYs of CVD overall as well as its main subcategories, including ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke. The CVD burden appeared to be lower in coastal provinces with higher economic development. The between-province gap in relative burden of CVD increased from 1990 to 2016, with faster decline in economically developed provinces. Conclusions and Relevance: Substantial discrepancies in the total CVD burden and burdens of CVD subcategories have persisted between provinces in China despite a relative decrease in the CVD burden. Geographically targeted considerations are needed to tailor future strategies to enhance CVD health throughout China and in specific provinces.